Explore 24: The White Vote
Since the country’s first election in the late 18th century, white citizens have consistently held a near super majority in national elections. This is partly a result of historical factors like segregation and the Jim Crow era, which ended only 60 years ago, leading to a more diverse electorate. As we approach the sixth presidential election of the 21st century, it’s crucial to recognize that white voters have tended to support more conservative presidential candidates, thereby significantly bolstering the Republican party’s vote share. But demographics are changing; the percentage of white votes has decreased in the past six elections.
Percentage of Total Voters Who Are White This Century.
2000 81%
2004 77%
2008 74%
2012 72%
2016 70%
2020 67%
Voters Under the Age of 45
Voters under 45 are the least likely to vote and can be persuaded to vote for either side, though they have leaned Republican in the last two elections. Former President Trump is expected to do well and will need an increased percentage of total voters with this group.
Voters Above 45
Voters above 45 are expected to back former President Trump, even though some voted for President Biden in 2020. This is partly because of Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. These voters will be among the bigger deciders next month.
Some Data Points Who Will Decide Who Wins
-Does the percentage of total white voters continue to decrease, and if so, by how much
-What is the total number of voters under the age of 45 who vote for Harris
-Can Donald Trump strengthen his already strong support among voters above the age of 45
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