Explore 24: The Religious Vote
Many Voters of Faith are Up For Grabs
Voters of diverse faiths are poised to become a key demographic in the upcoming election, a trend that politicians and political scientists will closely follow. Different denominations have different outlooks and beliefs, and 2024 could be the most watched election for religion since 1960 when the country openly debated whether John F. Kennedy could be president with his Catholic faith.
Despite the declining percentage of total voters who prioritize their faith in the electoral process, a potential mass movement is brewing. This shift is partly fueled by the ongoing debates on social issues and global conflicts.
One of the largest groups are those who don’t identify with any religion which has doubled over the last 20 years
Percentage of Voters Who Do Not Identify With a Religion
2004 10%
2008 12%
2012 12%
2016 15%
2020 22%
Catholic
Percentage of Voters who Identify as Catholic
2004 27%
2008 27%
2012 25%
2016 23%
2020 25%
Catholic voters have been in the spotlight since the Dobbs vs Jackson Supreme Court decision in 2022, which overturned Roe vs Wade, which legalized abortion nationwide. The catholic conference has long supported the efforts to overturn the legality of abortion.
The debate has shifted to the individual state legislatures, with liberal states expanding their rights while conservative states making the practice illegal. How will conservative Catholic and Protestant voters continue to vote as one of their top priorities has been achieved at the nationwide level?
Protestant
Percentage of Voters who Identify as Protestant
2004 54%
2008 54%
2012 53%
2016 51%
2020 43%
Protestants generally lean conservative and will likely give Donald Trump a solid majority, especially in the South and Midwest. Kamala Harris, coming from a Baptist background, could see an increase in the Christian faith, especially among African Americans which gave Barack Obama at least 40% of the vote when he ran a decade and a half ago.
Jewish
Percentage of Voters Who Identify as Jewish
2004 3%
2008 2%
2012 2%
2016 3%
2020 2%
With the rise in anti-Semitic attacks across the country, many are watching the Jewish voting block that has been traditionally Democratic. Some of the Israeli government’s harshest critics are coming from Democrats who identify with the free Palestinian movement, even with a hostile tone. Jewish citizens are being courted by Republicans who are showing unwavering support to the current prime minister, who would like to see Donald Trump back in the White House.
Other Religion
Percentage of Voters Who Identify As Other Religions
2004 7%
2008 6%
2012 7%
2016 7%
2020 8%
Other religions include Mormons, Muslims, Sikhs, and other faiths have traditionally voted Democratic. Arab voters are increasingly voting for Republicans again for the first time this century in part of what they feel are the inhumane tactics of Israel with the support from the Biden Administration. Former President Trump can reap the benefits on both sides of the Middle Eastern war. Mormons have not been fans of Donald Trump going back eight years ago, and that could include this year, especially in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.Voters of other faiths could be the key deciders in different battleground states
Data Points to Watch
-Catholic Vote
-Jewish Vote
-Arab Vote for Trump
-Other religion’s total vote
Other Articles in the Explore 24 Series
