Explore 24: The Black Vote
Since Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Act in the mid-1960s, African-American voters have voted nearly unanimously for the Democratic Party and their chosen candidates for offices from President to City Council. Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden all benefitted from high percentages of the voting block and, in turn, tried to deliver resources to the urban areas to help these constituencies. With Vice President Kamala Harris leading the ticket, she will need this demographic to carry her across the finish line in several states like Barack Obama a decade and a half ago. Donald Trump made a play for all minority voters, and he increased his percentage from 2016 to 2020 and is trying to increase his support again, which could be his ace in the hole in a very close election.
Percentage of the Total Voters who Are Black
2000 10%
2004 11%
2008 13%
2012 13%
2016 12%
2020 13%
Voters Under the Age of 45
Democrats are heavily targeting voters under the age of 45, as Kamala Harris will need them to vote at least 90% for her. However, Donald Trump increased the percentage of voters under 45. He will need continued support in central battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, each of which has an urban center (Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh) that could throw the election.
Voters Above the Age of 45
Voters above 45, who turn out in much higher numbers, are much more likely to vote Democratic and close to 90% of the vote. This group has been the Republican’s harshest critics. Harris being the first minority woman to be the nominee of a major party with the hopes she can get Obama’s level of support.
Here are data points worth watching
What is the total turnout of African Americans
-Does Harris get Barack Obama’s level of support among all age groups
-Does President Trump continue to improve his standing among young voters, which could offset Harris’s advantage among older voters?
-Do younger voters turnout
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