Explore 24: New Hampshire Recap
The Showdown That Wasn’t
The New Hampshire Primary was expected to be the showdown of the 2024 election, but it was status quo, with former President Trump beating Nikki Haley 54%-43%. The exit polling data by Edison Research provided some great insight into the more moderate state that’s not entirely as driven an ideology as Iowa. A Record 330,000 voters participated in the nation’s first primary and it gave interesting results.
Most important Issues
34% Economy
31% Immigration
17% Foreign Policy
11% Abortion
-The uncertain direction of the economy and the rise of cost make this pocket-book issue the top. The crises at the southern border are a close second, making these two issues on voters’ minds in both the heartland and northeast.
Condition of Economy
3% Excellent
27% Good
34% Not so Good
35% Poor
-What stands out is voters are more pessimistic than one would initially think. Voters could be persuaded that Inflation could be cooling and the economy’s health could improve.
Abortion Ban
27% Favor
61% Opposed
-This statistic shows that outside of the religious right, abortion continues to be an issue that Republicans cannot get a footing on with voters. This issue could be President Biden’s issue that holds his coalition together.
Former President Trump continues to fuse a coalition of traditional conservative voters with working-class residents who do not have a college degree in remaking the party in his image of popularism. Despite his success with party voters, he continues to struggle with independent voters.
Among Republican Voters 51% of total voters
Trump 74%
Haley 25%
Independent Voters 45% of total voters
Haley 60%
Trump 38%
Trump Voters Coalition
88% Very Conservative
74% Republicans
70% Income under 50K
66% Without a College Degree
Haley Voters Coalition
73% Moderate
66% First Time Voters
60% Independent Voters
56% College Graduate
Many Republicans still question the results of the 2020 election. The party is more evenly split, and they are divided on who they are voting for.
Did Biden win the 2020 Election
47% Yes
53% No
Of the 47% who said yes Haley 77%-Trump 21%
Of the 53% who said no Trump 86%-Haley 12%
Trump still qualified to be President if convicted
54% Yes
42% No
Of the 54% who said yes Trump 87%-12%
Of the 42% who said no Haley won 83%-13%
There was action in the Democratic Primary as Joe Biden changed the primary calendar, taking away the first-in-the-nation primary status and giving it to South Carolina. he did not formally file on the ballot, and there was an organized effort to write in the President. There was also an aggressive social media campaign to write in “Ceasefire” to protest the Biden Administration’s involvement in the Israeli War.
Notes from the Democratic Primary
1,500 votes for “ceasefire” 1.2% of total votes
Biden got 64% (All Write-In)
Dean Phillips 20%
Maryann Williamson 4%
Overall, the New Hampshire Primary showed potential points that some think the economy isn’t in a complete downfall, abortion is still a non-starter with moderate voters, and a lot of Nikki Haley’s voters will end up voting for President Biden. Something that she does not want to admit.
