Explore 24: Michigan Recap
Biden’s Southeast Problem vs Trump’s West Michigan Problem
The Michigan Primary election provided an opportunity for both party’s front runners, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, each view Michigan as a state that fits with their political philosophy, and they can each win the state 16 electoral votes in November.
Trump pulled off one of the biggest upsets eight years ago when he defeated Hilary Clinton by less than 10,000 votes by running up large margins in the state’s rural and industrial areas while holding his own in the suburbs and taking advantage of low voter turnout in the urban areas. Meanwhile, Biden won back the state by around 150,000 votes by taking advantage of a shift of the suburbs (specifically Kent and Oakland Counties) and better turnout in the state’s largest cities.
This primary provided opportunities for voters in each of the partiers to show their displeasure with them. For Trump, Nikki Haley still hasn’t dropped out, and her rhetoric has risen, predicting Trump is a lock to lose to Biden. Biden was facing pressure from his left flank over the war in Israel/Gaza. Michigan has areas that have a very high population of Middle Eastern descent (Dearborn and Hamtramck)
Trump vs Haley
On the GOP side, in a breakdown of congressional districts, Trump was able to win them all. However, by taking a deeper look at the data, Haley broke 30% in congressional districts on the western and southeastern sides of the states. Representative Scholten and Huizenga represent Kent, Ottawa, Allegan, and other West Michigan counties that have drifted away from the GOP, especially Trump. Haley also did well in the Ann Arbor region. In the City of Grand Rapids, Trump defeated Haley by a 49%-45% margin.
This data demonstrates that Trump still has a suburban problem that plagued in the 2018 midterms and his lost re-election bid in 2020. The Haley vote is a protest vote against Trump and there still is a percentage that does not want Trump on the top of the GOP ticket. Area’s like Grand Rapids and greater west Michigan will the biggest bellwether on if Trump can win a second term.
Biden vs Undeclared
On the Democratic side, President Biden faced the most significant organized opposition to his candidacy regarding the undeclared campaign. Michigan is home to the highest concentrated Middle Eastern populations in the country, and the national press lasered in on the communities of Dearborn (44% Arab), Dearborn Heights (33% Arab), and Hamtramck (31% Arab).
In the breakdown of congressional districts, President Biden held the Undeclared vote under 13% in nine of the state’s congressional districts. However, in Congressional District 12, Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib openly endorsed the undeclared, hoping it would put enough pressure on the President to push for a ceasefire in Gaza and in District 13, where Hamtramck is based.
Undeclared received more votes than Biden in Dearborn (56%-40%), Dearborn Heights (48%-47%), and Hamtramck (61%-32%).
In looking at this chart that Florida Data Geek created on X, the eastern side of Dearborn was the backbone of the undeclared vote. This area is worth noting partly because they are not pleased with President Biden and could do the following: 1. Vote for Trump, 2. Vote for a third party candidate, Cornell West fits the demographic, or 3. Not vote at all.
Conclusion
On the top, it looks like Biden and Trump each had a good night, but exploring the numbers can be boiled down to Biden having a Dearborn and southeast Michigan problem, while Trump has a Grand Rapids and West Michigan problem. But all sides can agree that Michigan will be one of the states that decide who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave for the next four years.
