Explore 24: Iowa Recap
Trump Wins All Regions, Shows Strength in State
The results from the Iowa caucus were as stern as the polar vortex windchill for anyone not named Donald Trump. The former president swept through the Hawkeye state, sweeping the state’s four congressional districts, came within two votes of sweeping all 99 counties, and already seems to have a lock on the state’s six electoral votes on November 5.
Entrance Poll
Diving into the results and entrance polling of caucus participants shows Trump was able to fuse the religious evangelical and the white working class, which gives him strength that previous Republican nominees have not had. Here are some interesting statistics from the entrance poll conducted by Edison Research.
80% of caucus voters are over the age of 45
88% of voters who braved the subzero temperatures to participate in the caucus identified as very conservative or somewhat conservative.
Turnout Data
Turnout was down compared to 2016, which can be attributed to the weather while also showing the certainty of a Trump win.
2024: 130,000
2016: 186,872
2012: 121,501
2008: 118,922
Iowa is a very religious state, especially for Evangelical Christians, who have been more than half of the members of past participants in the caucus processes; it went down compared to 2016.
2016: 62%
2024: 54%
The fact the voters view themselves as conservative but less evangelical demonstrates the shifting demographics of the Republican party and how they regard Trump as very conservative, and his positions on various issues have been adapted to the average voters.
Photo Caption: Counties in Trump in Blue. Haley in Orange.
Important Issues
These are the most important issues facing this country, according to voters, along with the person who received the most votes from those.
37% Immigration (Trump 61%)
36% Economy (Trump 52%)
11% Foreign Policy (Nikki Haley 47%)
11% Abortion (Ron DeSantis 51%)
Trump’s coalition came from different parts of Iowa’s demographics that included.
65% of Voters No College Degree
60% Very Conservative
56% 65 and Older
51% White/Evangelical
Key Counties
Five counties that pundits were watching are the more populated centers of the state that voted for Marco Rubio in 2016 (which President Biden could win all five). Nikki Haley was projected to be strong in these counties, but Ron DeSantis took votes away from her.
Polk Trump 38% DeSantis 27% Haley 26%
Dallas Trump 39% Haley 27% DeSantis 25%
Story Trump 34% Haley 30% DeSantis 21%
Johnson Haley 35% (won by 1 vote) Trump 35% DeSantis 21%
Scott Trump 49% Haley 20% DeSantis 18%
The Old “Obama Counties”
Another item I watched was the 32 counties that voted for Barack Obama in 2016 and switched to Trump in 2016. These areas are blue-collar, working-class counties. Of these 32 counties, Trump received more than 60% of the vote in 17 of them, 50–60% in another 12, leaving three others that he did not garner a majority of the vote. Below is the percentage of the vote Trump could garner Tuesday night.
Allamakee 67%
Boone 46%
Bremer 47%
Buchanan 63%
Cedar 60%
Cerro Gordo 60%
Chickasaw 58%
Clarke 64%
Clayton 64%
Clinton 70%
Des Moines 60%
Dubuque 48%
Fayette 57%
Floyd 66%
Howard 64%
Jackson 72%
Jasper 55%
Jefferson 70%
Jones 56%
Lee 66%
Louisa 71%
Marshall 53%
Mitchell 50%
Muscatine 54%
Poweshiek 52%
Tama 58%
Union 59%
Wapello 72%
Webster 66%
Winneshiek 54%
Woodbury 57%
Worth 67%
Other Key Data Points
68% of the voters in the caucus say Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election. 69% of the voters caucus for Trump, and on the flip side, Haley received 49% of the vote from people who said Biden won. This data point is worth watching in other states to see if higher turnout groups of voters have similar thoughts.
63% of voters stated that Donald Trump was fit to be president even with a conviction in his upcoming trials. 32% took the other stance. This is important because even with the advantage of the group of voters that Trump was able to fuse, still a third of them thought his legal trouble would be too much to overcome. This data point is worth following in other states.
Overview
Looking back at the caucuses, the takeaways are Trump’s grip on the electorate through all demographics. His campaign was much more sophisticated than in 2016 and got more traditional Republican voters along with those he brought into the party eight years ago. However, a section of the party still wants someone new but needs more sway to make this a race after March.
