Explore 24: Gender Gap
Do Men and Woman vote differently?
“Gender Gap” According to the World Economic Forum, the gap is “ the difference between women and men as reflected in social, political, intellectual, cultural, or economic attainments or attitudes.” Meaning that a simple issue or topic can be viewed through entirely different lenses by men and women.
This is especially true with politics in the fall, come election time. Over the last thirty years, men and women have often voted for different candidates, causing both the Democratic and Republican parties to fine-tune their messaging tactics when talking to men and women.
The only time in the six presidential elections this century, in Barack Obama’s first campaign in 2008, each gender voted on the same side. This fall could be the most significant gender gap between men and women. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have their messages fine-tuned, aligning with their distinct visions of the country, which could further accelerate the ideological shift in each party as many change their voting patterns, making them hard to predict for this year.
Breakdown of Voting Percentage Based on Gender
2000 52%-48% Female
2004 54%-46% Female
2008 53%-47% Female
2012 53%-47% Female
2016 53–47% Female
2020 52–48% Female
Source: Edison Research
Women have been the majority of voters in each election this century
The Male Vote
The male vote breakdown is usually around 40–45%, or four in ten men, voting for Democratic candidates. At the same time, a solid majority back the GOP in elections. They have consistently voted for the GOP, whether it’s George Bush or Donald Trump. Even earlier this spring in the Republican Primary, men were Trump’s best demographic, and he could build on his past two campaigns to get close to 60% of male voters. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz being on the Democratic ticket is a sign of the Harris campaign courting male voters.
The Female Vote
During this same period, the number of women favoring Democratic candidates has increased, offsetting the male vote in many precincts and municipalities. Women have been the majority voters in every election this century, a factor with the Democrats winning the popular vote in five of the six contests. With Kamala Harris leading the Democratic ticket, an advertising campaign focused on abortion rights, which have been restricted nationwide by the conservative justices appointed by the former president, we will see if this leads to increased enthusiasm from female voters for her.
Crime: The Breaking Point Issue
In 2004, George Bush received 48% of the female vote because of security issues after 9/11, and running on a platform of family safety, Donald Trump is trying to replicate the messaging, especially in population centers (aka cities and their suburbs), which has seen a drastic increase in crime which he contends happened when he left office and of the Democrats leadership in those areas. Harris is trying to counter with ads of her public safety career as District Attorney in San Francisco and California Attorney General.
Here are some items worth watching that will tell us who will in
-Are a majority of voters women as they have been in each election this century?
-Can Vice President Harris get at least 40% of the male vote, which Hillary Clinton barely got in 2016?
-Can former President Trump be the first Republican since George Bush to hit at least 55%?
-Female voters, driven by the Supreme Court Decision overturning Roe vs. Wade, vote at least 60% Democratic who want legalized abortion the way it was before Roe.
Where does security/crime rank among voters’ top issues, and how do they break as they could be the bellwether?
