Explore 24: First Time Voters
How Many Voters Will Be New?
One of the easiest ways to determine how someone will vote is by looking at their previous voting history. This information allows political parties to gain as many votes as possible by figuring out how to message their positions to each vote.
But if a person hasn’t voted before, it’s anyone’s guess on how they will cast their ballot, and they could be contacted by everyone running for office, ranging from a presidential campaign to local school board races. Most first-time voters are citizens who have just turned 18. This century, these voters have leaned heavily Democratic, with the defining issues being the Iraq War in 2004, Barack Obama’s trailblazing campaign that energized young people in 2008 and 2012, and the 2016 and 2020 contests featuring Donald Trump, where he had near-universal name i.d. and a robust social media presence. This election season, younger voters are as big of a wildcard as any section of voters this November, as they could be up for grabs by both political parties.
First Time Voters
Percentage of First Time Voters
2004 11%
2008 11%
2012 No Data Available
2016 10%
2020 14%
They care about issues such as the war in Gaza, student loan debt, climate change, and affordability, which is impacted by inflation. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns are messaging on these issues as they could swing some battleground states.
They are a complete wildcard. Can they go to Kamala Harris’s trailblazing campaign to become the first African American woman of Asian descent to ascend to the presidency, or will Donald Trump’s message about bringing peace worldwide and his economic populist? One interesting piece of data is that younger first-time voters are attracted to third-party candidates at a higher rate than their non-first-time voter counterparts. Can any third-party candidates have the impact that Ross Perot had in 1992 and 1996, Ralph Nader in 2000, and Jill Stein and Gary Johnson had in 2016, where they took votes away from each party? In some states, the votes were so close that it was more than the margin of victory.
Non-First Time Voters
Non-first-time voters can be close to 50/50, as they have been in the past. They have been on the winning side more often than not and could be the key deciders again. They are the focus of the Trump campaign’s ads, asking, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Here are some data points worth watching,
-What is the breakdown of first-time voters and non-first-time voters?
-Does Donald Trump become the best preforming Republican since George Bush in 2000, with both groups
-Can Kamala Harris rally first-time voters to vote for her
-How much do they vote third party
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