Explore 24: Education Breakdown
Do College Degrees Change Voting Patterns
When Donald Trump shocked the political world in 2016 in what is likely considered the biggest upset in presidential election history, one of the biggest demographics that swung in his direction were blue-collar workers, especially in the states of Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin, where he was able to win voters who had voted for Barack Obama in 2012. These Voters, who do not have a college degree, work in industries like the trades field, construction, and other small businesses. Many of these jobs do not need an advanced college degree.
These voters in the past have relied on social safety, have had unemployment, disability, and workers comp more than the average citizen, and have often taken comfort in unions and other programs championed by Democrats. Donald Trump has singlehanded flipped this group and even has them voting for other Republicans down ticket, which not even Ronald Regan could not accomplish four decades ago due to the changing economic landscape and the rise of Artificial Intelligence.
On the flip side, voters with a college degree have shifted away from the GOP and Donald Trump himself and voted for Democrats in record numbers in part because of his tone and approach to the job. Many regions that were not even ten years ago staunchly Republican have flipped to the Democrats since 2016, and that margin is growing. The education divide is at the centerpiece of many of the social rifts in the country, and the divide could grow in November.
No College Degree
Voters without a college degree have been close to even during the last 20 years. That said, Donald Trump has shifted the voting pattern to make this group solidly Republican with his economic populist messaging on inflation that could increase his margin with this group who remember the financial times of 2017–2020 before the pandemic when there were plenty of jobs to choose from.
Percentage of College Degrees vs No-College Degrees This Century
2004: 42%-58% (No College Degree Majority)
2008: 55%-45% (No College Majority)
2012: 53%-47% (No College Majority)
2016: 50%-50% (Tied)
2020: 58%-42% (College Degree Majority)
College Degree
While those who have a bachelor’s and master’s degree are voting for more Democratic candidates. Three states have many college-educated and non-educated voters and have swung back and forth in the last few elections: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where the states have higher concentrations of highly educated voters in the suburbs of the urban areas of those states.
The biggest questions of voters based on their educational levels will not be who they vote for but the margin they vote for their chosen candidates and the total turnout.
Data Worth Watching on Election Night
-Divide of degrees vs non-degrees and who can eat the others base
-Voters with some college but no degree go towards Trump?
-Percentage of Voters with No Degree
-Can Harris run up the score with College Degrees
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