Election Night 2023 Cheat Sheet
Kentucky and Mississippi Gubernatorial Preview
Even though it’s an odd number year, three southern states are having gubernatorial elections in 2023. It’s a foregone conclusion Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi will go staunchly Republican in next year’s presidential contest. Still, these statewide elections (along with legislative races in New Jersey and Virginia and several other local elections) could provide critical insights and themes as we roll into 2024.
Louisiana already held its primary election, and to the surprise of many, Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry not only came in first place but got over 50%, negating the need for a runoff and giving the GOP a pick-up as he replaced Democrat John Bel Edwards. Lousiana showed some potential worry signs for Democrats, especially with the 2024. Once the dust settles, I will dive into key data points and themes that I find interesting.
Mississippi
Mississippi is a deeply conservative state that hasn’t elected a Democrat governor since Ronnie Musgrove in 1999. Still, the 2019 contest was competitive, with Republican Luitentant Governor Tate Reeves defeating the last statewide elected Democrat in Attorney General Jim Hood, 51%-46%. The demographics of Mississippi provide a road map for a Democratic victory if (a big if) everything can fall into place.
This past October In Louisiana, African American turnout can be described as abysmal at best, which played a part in Landry getting above 50% and avoiding the runoff. If the same thing were to occur in Mississippi, Reeves would get north of his 2019 margin.
This year’s contest has the Democrats nominating one of their elected officials in Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (the PSC regulates utilities in the state, and he represented the north region of the state). Presley has gained attention for being Elvis’s distant cousin. Reeves enters the contest as the heavy favorite while having the benefit of running in a ruby-red state, and the GOP will increase their already supermajorities in both houses of the legislature.
The main issues of the campaign have been the closing of many rural hospitals in the state, education funding, and the welfare scandal that has even engulfed Hall of Fame Quarterback Brett Farve.
As we enter election night, these will be the key areas to watch in the Magnolia state.
North Mississippi: Anchored in Tupelo, like other southern regions, it used to be heavily Democratic but now is one of the most heavily Republican regions of the state. These counties are part of Presley’s district, public service commissioner. He didn’t even draw an opponent in 2019, and it can be an early sign if he can cut into Tate Reeves’s margin. If not, it will be a tough road to the hall, and he needs to make upvotes elsewhere.
Key Counties to watch: Lee (home to Tupilo), Layfatte (home of Oxford and the University of Mississippi), Alcorn, Chickisaw
Delta: These rural counties have a majority African-American population. For Presley to win, he will need to not only win these counties but also have them turn out in sky-high numbers. Turnout might be an issue with only one African American on the statewide ticket if Louisiana-type turnout were to occur in this area (along with Hinds County). Presley will get a majority of the votes, but he must be above 60% to have a chance statewide.
Key Counties: Yazoo, Sunflower, DeSoto (Memphis suburb), Bolivar (home to Delta State University)
Golden Triangle: This region anchored by Starkville (home of Mississippi State University) could be up for grabs as this region has more companies and college-educated residents. For the last eight years, there has been a trend where suburban areas (precisely voters with higher educational attainment and women) have voted Democratic at higher numbers. This theory will be tested with an incumbent Republican governor and an unpopular Democratic president.
Key Counties: Oktibbeha (home to Starkville and Mississippi State University) , Lowndes (home to Columbus)
Capital Region: Outside the Delta, this area will give Presley most of his votes as the City of Jackson (which resides in this region), where Reeves has constantly picked fights with city officials during his first term. Rankin County is the most prominent Republican county in the state and will likely give Reeves a large amount of his votes. This area is worth watching for how many votes Pressley gains in Hinds County compared to how many votes Reeves gets in Rankin County.
Key Counties: Madison, Hinds (home of Jackson), Rankin
Coast: This state region has many military installations, creating fertile conservative territory. This area has trended democratic (very slowly), and this will be a region where Reeves will receive a large amount of raw votes. Presley needs to take votes away somewhere, and this region outside the Golden Triangle would have to be the place to do it.
Key Counties: Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Forrest (home of Hattiesburg and Southern Mississippi University)
Overall, Governor Reeves remains the heavy favorite to win re-election. Yes, a few polls have shown a close race, but in Mississippi, undecided voters lean Republican at high levels. If no one gets over 50% of the vote, there is a runoff two weeks later between the top two candidates.
Kentucky
Kentucky was one of Donald Trump’s strongest states in 2020 and will be destined to give him or another Republican a similar margin; however, at the state level, Democrats have been able to inoculate themselves from the national brand and have held the governor’s office for all but eight years this century. This will be the closest contest in the country, and each party is spending millions of dollars to propel Democratic Incumbent Governor Andy Beshear and Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a one-time protégé of the state’s longtime senior senator Mitch McConnell.
An interesting fact this century is that the party that has won the governor’s race has won the presidential race the following year.
03 Ernie Fletcher-04 George Bush
07 Steve Beshear-08 Obama
11 Beshear-12 Obama
15 Matt Bevin-16 Donald Trump
19 Andy Beshear-20 Joe Biden
Beshear has focused his campaign on being an active governor regarding disaster relief and economic development. Cameron, meanwhile, has countered with national issues such as COVID-19 policies, Transgender regulations, and the crime increase in urban areas.
There are counties in each state’s regions that will provide bellwethers on who will win the contest.
Different Regions:
Eastern Coal Fields: Governor Beshear held his own in this concentrated area where he won a handful of counties four years ago. Thirty years ago, this area was 60–70% Democrat, but this region’s reliance on coal and social conservativism have trended to heavy to the GOP. The area has been trying to embrace the tourism industry of Appalachia. Beshear has run positive ads on getting flooding relief and economic development to this depressed region without mentioning his party brand, which he knows would sink him in the area.
Key Counties: Elliot (before 2016, the county had never voted Republican for president), Rowan (home to Murray State University), Pike, Perry
Blue Grass: This area anchored in the suburbs of Cincinnati, Ohio, traditionally has given the Republican candidate their most extensive margins of victory, but the area trended towards Beshear in 2019, and he will need to win the region to retain. Cameron is ideally the best GOP representative to win these voters back. This will be the bellwether region that will decide the election.
Key Counties: Fayette (home to Lexington and the University of Kentucky), Jefferson (home to Louisville), Boone, Kenton, Campbell, Franklin (home of Frankfort, the state capital)
Western Coalfields: This region was closed in 2019 as Beshear won the population centers while holding his own in the small towns. In Louisiana, Republicans were able to win areas like this, with over 70% of the vote negating any Democrat from getting any footing. This is the area represented in Congress by Jamie Comer, who leads the congressional investigations into President Biden’s family business dealings.
Key Counties: Henderson, Davies, Warren (home to Bowling Green and Western Kentucky University)
This contest will be close, and while Beshear has the edge in some polling, a prominent Republican turnout could make this race too close to call for most of Tuesday night.These elections might seem like sleepers, but there are always items to take away anytime citizens turn out and vote.
