Election 2023: The Recap and the Road Ahead
What did Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi tell us
Election night 2023 whetted the appetite of many political junkies who have spent the last week pouring through the results ranging from small towns in the heartland to large city blocks in the biggest municipalities in the country. Last Tuesday also provided so-called competitive statewide elections in states that generally do not have a contest where each party thinks they have a path to victory.
In hindsight, no real surprises took place that would shake the political establishment before the 2024 presidential. Still, some data showed developments that could provide a key to understanding where the presidential contest is headed. Let’s look at some of the big themes.
Louisiana
The Cajun state had its primary on October 17. The big takeaway was that Attorney General Jeff Landry was elected governor with over 50% of the vote, evading the need for a runoff in the states jungle primary (where the top two candidates advance to a runoff if no one receives a majority of the vote) It was the GOP’s night as they increased their already supermajority in the legislature. Yet, the lead story was voter turnout, or lack thereof. Here are some data points.
+36% voter turnout (the lowest since 2011)
+ 280,000 fewer votes than the 2019 election competitive election, where John Bel Edwards was fighting off two substantial GOP challenges
+52,000 fewer votes than the 2015 election when Edwards defeated Republican U.S. Senator David Vitter
+29,000 fewer votes cast in Orleans parish (home of New Orleans), which is one of the reasons Wilson couldn’t get a higher percentage to push the election to a runoff
Conclusion: The lack of voter enthusiasm, especially among the African-Americans, is something to watch over the next year as President Biden needs substantial support and turnout in urban centers like New Orleans. If voter turnout is lower than expected it makes the path easier potentially for former President Trump who has a much more passionate base of supporters.
Kentucky
This race received the most attention as incumbent governor Andy Beshear secured a second term, defeating Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a once-rising start of the GOP. What made the Beshear victory so astonishing is that he increased his margin in many counties, and he flipped a couple of rural counties in the heart of the Appalachian region, which had counties that gave Donald Trump well over 70% of the vote.
Beshear also was able to, through the onslaught of ads that the GOP was running against him, a positive/proactive message on the success of his governorship, which has led many pundits across the country to float his method as a model for President Biden as he navigates a similar tough terrene next November. Here are some points that the bluegrass state provided.
+Received a 103,000 margin out of Jefferson County (Louisville)
+Improved percentage of the vote in over 100 of the state’s 120 counties
+ The Largest change of percentage increase was in the counties of Breathitt, Lee, Owsley, and Perry, all located in the eastern coalfields. This area was decimated by flooding earlier this year, and Beshear made several trips to the region to track recovery efforts and was rewarded by voters.
+38% voter turnout, down from 44% from the hotly contested 2019 contest between Beshear and former Governor Matt Bevin.
Conclusion: The biggest takeaway from Kentucky is that Democrats can have a pulse in rural America if the proper investments are made. While Cameron learned a lesson of even though he has a good resume, he was never able to find his footing and a cohesive message that was able to attract independent voters.
Mississippi
The election for the top office in the Magnolia state was overhyped as the Ole Miss football team’s SEC Championship hopes. Brandon Presley, on paper, was the Democrat’s best chance this century to regain the governor’s mansion, but Incumbent Tate Reeves kept his impressive coalition together to earn his second term.
The campaign was 100% negative as each side hurled insults. Presley accused Reeves of being involved in the state’s heavily published welfare scandal with Brett Favre. At the same time, Reeves and his allies bombarded Presley with pictures of Joe Biden claiming a liberal takeover of Mississippi was on the line. Some notes of interest from the Magnolia state
+Reeves flipped two larger counties, Madison (a Jackson suburb) and Lafayette (home to Oxford). This gave the governor a firewall that helped him stay above 50% and negate the need for a runoff
+Pressley improved the Democratic margin in 34 of the 82 counties, including flipping rural counties Forrest, Grenada, Lowndes, Yalobusha, Winston
+Voter turnout decreased by over 10% (as of November 15, they are still counting votes in some counties)
+Pressley received the most votes for a Democrat this century
Conclusion: This contest was closer than many pundits expected, with Pressley running a campaign that almost pushed the incumbent governor to the runoff. Mississippi continues to be the state that puzzles Democrats the most because the roadmap is there for a victory, and Pressley ran the best campaign since 1999. For 2027, Democrats need to build on the success they had but try to put those last puzzle pieces together to break 24 straight years of the GOP controlling the governorship.
These are the biggest notes that came out of November 2023
-Turnout down (everywhere)
-African-American voter enthusiasm or lack of (especially in Louisiana)
-Rural Margins (Kentucky and Mississippi)
-Who has the upper hand in the suburbs
With all these in mind 2024 is around the corner!
