Battleground 109: Trumpamania and a Special Election
Last week, we took a look at the history of the 109th district, going from Dominic Jacobetti’s reign to the Republicans making a push for a district they hadn’t won since the Eisenhower Administration. The year 2016 will go down as one of the most consequential in American history. The presidential campaign produced two highly divisive nominees: former Secretary of State Democrat Hilary Clinton, a businessman, against T.V. mogul Republican Donald Trump. It was widely assumed that Clinton and the Democrats would win nationwide due to Trump’s outlandish statements that many deemed outside the norm.
Trumpamania
However, a political earthquake occurred, realigning the country. Trump, tapping into rural populism by pledging to fight for the forgotten men and women of the countryside, ran up margins unseen by past Republican candidates. He became the first presidential contender to win Michigan since 1988 and won the 109th district for the first time since Ronald Regan in 1984. A deeper dive at the number showed that residents didn’t just vote for Trump but also voted the straight Republican ticket. This placed many Republicans in local offices, giving the GOP the majority of county offices in the U.P. for the first time in at least 70 years. In the 109th contest, the Republican strength of straight-party ticket voting cut Kivela’s margins in Alger, Luce, and Schoolcraft counties significantly, even though Republican Kevin Pfister raised little money and hardly campaigned.
2016 John Kivela (D) vs Kevin Pfister (R) by County
Downballot Effect
Kivela secured his third term in Lansing with 62% of the vote, down from the 67% he had in 2014. Donald Trump’s strength showed that the Republican brand could sell in rural America and the central Upper Peninsula, which previously turned away the GOP in past elections. With Kivela being termed limited, the GOP’s ambition to compete for the seat was reignited, and they started preparing for 2018 when Kivela was term-limited.
2014 John Kivela (D) vs Pete Mackin (R) by Cities and Townships
2016 John Kivela (D) vs Kevin Pfister (R) by Cities and Townships
Special Election
Those plans were thrust into turbo drive as Kivela unexpectedly passed away in May 2017, creating a special election later in the year. With a primary election in August and a general election in November, the campaign to complete the unfinished term was highly spirited. The GOP recruited Marquette Area Public Schools Board President Rich Rossway, another quality candidate. He received substantial support from state Republicans, including finances and infrastructure, to win a competitive campaign. Marquette City Commissioner Sara Cambensy won a contested Democratic primary, defeating three qualified opponents to carry the Democratic banner. Being one of two state legislative races in November of 2017 (the other being a seat in Detroit, which was more than 85% Democratic) made the 109 race the main event for politicos in November 2017.
The district, which had rarely seen an intense race, was bombarded with mail, TV, and social media ads from state parties, labor unions, business groups, super PACs, and social advocacy groups trying to promote Cambensy and Rossway. Total spending approached one million dollars. In the end, Cambensy won 57% of the vote, once again dashing the hopes of the state Republicans.
Back to Normal?
In 2018, things seemed to return to normal; the Democratic nominee for Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, won 54% of the vote in the district, significantly more than the 47% Hilary Clinton had gotten two years earlier. Former State Rep Ed McBroom won within the boundaries of the 109th district to replace Tom Casperson in the State Senate. While Cambensy replicated her special election victory, winning a full term with 57% of the vote. Her victory proved that Democrats still could connect with voters throughout the central U.P., even making some political pundits think that maybe the 2016 Trump win was a fluke.
2018 Sara Cambensy vs Melody Wagner by County
2018 Sara Cambensy vs Melody Wagner by Cities and Townships
2020
In 2020, then President Trump proved everyone wrong once again. He regained his populist-centered campaign in the U.P., winning the region with over 60% of the vote. However, Biden won the 109th district by 200 votes, improving his standing among voters in Alger and Marquette counties more than Hilary Clinton had in 2016, while he hardly broke 30% in Luce and Schoolcraft counties. At the same time, Cambensy attained her last term in Lansing with another 57% victory. The 2020 race showed the voters could vote for a Republican at the top of the ballot but also split their ticket, voting for a Democrat down the ballot, making the 109th seat competitive for future elections. A new twist was guaranteed for 2022, with the census being taken in 2020, creating new district boundaries and an open seat, making the race highly competitive.
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