Battleground 109: Primary Review
Hill vs Bohnak Set for Epic Contest
The primary race for the 109th State House District came to an anti-climactic end last Tuesday, with Jenn Hill and Karl Bohnak putting up landslide victories, clinching their nominations for both the Democratic and Republican Primary. Overall, 21,188 voters cast a ballot, an increase from the 18,732 voters who voted in August of 2022. While Democrats still had a majority of voters, there was an increase in the GOP primary, demonstrating a competitive multi-candidate primary.
Election Summary
12,023 Democratic Primary Voters
9,165 Republican Primary Voters
21,188 Total Voters
57%-43% Dem Majority
Democratic Primary
Jenn Hill (Inc.) 80%
Randy Girard 16%
Margaret Brumm 4%
Incumbent State Rep. Jenn Hill easily rushed past her opponents, commanding 80% of the vote. While she faced numerous claims that her voting record was out of line for the district, she won every precinct by at least a 2/3rds majority. Overall, 42% of the Democratic Vote came from Greater Marquette (City, Township, and Chocolay Township), which gave Hill 79% of the over 5,000 votes cast in those precincts. She will need a similar turnout and margins for November.
21% of the Democratic Vote came from Ishpeming and Negaunee City and Townships, which Hill won with 80% of the vote. This area remains solidly Democratic; however, many GOP candidates, including former President Trump, have increased the Republican vote in their previous runs for president and could perform well in these areas again.
Other Data
-Marquette County had 77% of the total vote, making it the premier battleground area as we approach November.
-42% of total votes were cast by Marquette County residents in the Democratic Primary (down from 48% in 2022), a sign of GOP enthusiasm.
-63% of the Democratic Vote came from the Big Three (Ishpeming, Marquette, and Negaunee).
-36% of the total vote came from the Big Three (Ishpeming, Marquette, and Negaunee) in the Democratic Primary
Democratic Primary Breakdown
82% Marquette County
18% Everyone Else
The chart represents the overwhelming majority of votes in the Democratic primary from Marquette County. Jenn Hill earned this victory through her fundraising and work within the district. All the talks of Hill being vulnerable in a Democratic primary turned out to be nulled, and now she has momentum and the packing of party leadership in Lansing and the U.P. Even outside Marquette County, neither of her opponents could tap into anti-incumbency. Outside of an active social media presence, there was no sign of notable support against Hill.
Republican Primary
Karl Bohnak 74%
Burt Mason 15%
Melody Wagner 10%
Lansing Republicans were thrilled last week when they got their preferred candidate through the primary in former TV6 News Meteorologist Karl Bohnak. He defeated his two opponents with 75% of the vote. Like Hill, he won most precincts with at least 2/3’s of the vote (Baraga did give its native son, Burt Mason) — 23% of the Republican Vote in the Greater Marquette area. Bohnak won 75% of that vote, along with 14% of Republican Vote Ishpeming and Negaunee City and Townships, which Bohnak won with 83% of that vote. The vote totals indicate that Bohnak can get votes in the western portion of Marquette County, where he will need to win and even convert some voters who voted Democrat in the past.
Republican Primary Breakdown
60% Marquette County
15% Alger County
15% Baraga County
15% Dickinson County
The chart breaks down the overall GOP vote by county. The biggest difference between the Democratic and Republican primaries is that the GOP has a more balanced vote, with the other counties contributing a significant vote. Bohnak, being a first-time candidate, was able to win in all parts of the district, which bodes well for him.
Conclusion
Overall, the stage is set for an epic November contest in which each party is confident, thinking it can count the 109th seat in its column. The best GOP field in a generation turned out to be a coronation for Bohnak, as he used his sky-high name, i.d., to overwhelm Burt Mason and Melody Wagner. Both Bohnak and Hill earned their primary victories and showed some non-believers the power of their election strategy. Residents in Alger, Baraga, Dickinson, and Marquette counties will see their mail volume increase with flyers from both parties and advocacy groups trying to sway voters’ opinions. By the time the votes are counted in November, this race could see millions of dollars worth of advertising, making this one of the premiere races in the state. Buckle up; it’s going to be a crazy 85 days.
