Battleground 109: Primary Premier
Three Democrats and Three Republicans Running
Next Tuesday is the primary election in Michigan, where voters will choose their candidates for offices ranging from the U.S. Senate to local offices. In the central and western Upper Peninsula, voters in the 109th state house district will choose who advances in a race for one of the most competitive seats in the state legislature. Both parties are looking at investing hundreds of thousands of dollars in the 109th that could sway control of the state house of representatives for Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s final two years in office.
It has been 70 years since Dominic Jacobetti defeated Alvin Richards to claim a seat in the legislature that has stayed in the Democratic Party’s column for over three-quarters of a century. Still, in the previous elections, Republicans have gotten closer and closer, and some politicos think this is the year the GOP can finally catch its white whale in the north. Before we reach November 5th, an active primary will conclude with many candidates from all lanes of the political spectrum are competing passionately.
Democratic Primary:
On the Democratic side, Jenn Hill is running for her second term in the House of Representatives. She currently sits on the House Energy, Local Government, and Higher Education committees and is the majority vice chair of the House Committee on Natural Resources. She won a competitive race in 2022 and raised $179,766 in the last fundraising quarter, a sign that she is expecting a close race again. Her top issues are sustainable energy, affordable health care, and housing access.
Before she gets to November, she has two primary challengers from each wing of the Democrat Party. Randy Girard, who spent four decades in local government leadership positions, felt the need to run for what he felt were the many progressive votes that Hill had taken with the Democratic leadership, especially on the energy reform legislation that was passed last year . He raised $14,820 and spent most of it on media advertising, curtailing his message that his centrist approach better represents the region.
Also running is Margaret Brumm, who has deep family ties to the district and has been involved with many community efforts ranging from picking up cigarette butts in parks to the controversy of the Marquette Area Public Schools high school mascot. An attorney by trade, she has run for numerous offices before being elected to the board of light in power in 2023. She is self-funding her campaign with $4,475
Areas to Watch:
-City of Marquette: A significant chunk of the vote will be cast in the city of Marquette, which provided Hill with large margins crucial to her victories in 2022. With each candidate claiming the greater Marquette area as their own, this could indicate how the night will go for everyone. Specifically, look at the Hill vote vs the not Hill vote to tell the night’s story.
-City of Ishpeming and Negaunee: Besides Marquette, the two largest municipalities within Marquette County are Ishpeming and Negaunee. These two cities have many Democratic votes, given the hospital’s and mine workers’ heavy union presence, who give the area’s votes to Democrats at a near supermajority level. If Girard or Brumm are to gain any momentum, these prime voter-rich areas could tell if Hill is in trouble, as either will have to take votes from her somewhere.
-Marquette Township: Randy Girard was the township manager here and represented the area on the Marquette County commission a couple of decades ago. This area leans Democratic and will be a good barometer to see if the anti-Hill vote gets traction. It is worth watching how many residents vote in each party’s primary as a sign of voter enthusiasm for November.
-Alger, Baraga, and Dickinson counties: These counties might give around 20% of the total vote and be a bellwether as to whether they will stick with the incumbent or if there is an anti-incumbent sediment throughout this area, making these voters prime to vote for the GOP nominee in November. Keep an eye on the Cities of Norway, Munising Township, and the Villages of Baraga and Lanse for the total votes and who gets the most.
Republican Primary:
In 2006, 2012, 2017, and 2022, local Republican voters fantasized about turning the 109th district red for the first time since the Eisenhower Administration. But like Lucy with Charlie Brown, time and time again, the voters have sent a Democrat to Lansing to represent the region, often in the center lane of the party with a populist tilt. In 2022, Melody Wanger got the closest a Republican has gotten in a generation, but she was still five points short.
This primary season has seen a different aura about the race in a presidential year in which Donald Trump has proven twice to be very popular in the region, likely increasing voter turnout. The increased enthusiasm has brought out the best GOP field in a generation. For years, local Republicans have dreamed about former TV6 weatherman Karl Bohnak running on the ticket, with sky-high name I.D. and excellent communication skills, and this year, he is running. He gained attention for his views on the COVID-19 vaccine and has gained many local endorsements expressing that he is a trusted voice in the region. He raised $51,782 for his campaign, and if he wins, that amount will increase tenfold.
Also running is Melody Wagner, a community activist who ran for the seat in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022, getting closer each time. She raised $5,200 this quarter for her fifth attempt for the seat. Burt Mason, a local businessman from Baraga County, is running a grassroots, passionate campaign. He has raised $54,427, including $29,200 of his money. No doubt, the Lansing establishment wants Bohnak to win and will invest heavy amounts of money and manpower to flip the seat, but Mason’s betting on himself and is working diligently, while Wagner has name I.D. from eight years of running for the seat.
Area’s to Watch:
-Marquette County: This area will provide the bulk of the GOP votes and could be the bellwether for who gets the upper hand. Does Bohnak get a solid lead, or is the vote split enough for outside counties to decide the winner?
-Baraga County: With a native son running, it’s not a matter of if Burt Mason will win Baraga County; it’s by what margin. Could he break 60%? This could be a good cushion to bank high enough of a vote total that can withstand other areas where he might not get as much support.
-The Bohnak vote vs. Everyone Else: With Bohnak being the choice of the GOP establishment, can he break a clear majority? Could he possibly get 2/3's? A victory is a victory, but the bigger the margin, the more energy he can take into the fall, showing he has the momentum to finally switch the seat.
Tuesday is the campaign’s halfway point, and next week’s numbers will paint a picture of what the next three months will look like on this electoral journey. Next week, we will dive into the vote counts that tell us the story of the voters’ choices.
