Battleground 109: Epic Election
The 109th District contest between Democrat Incumbent Jenn Hill and Republican Karl Bohnak is setting to be the most epic Upper Peninsula legislative race this century. Spending by political parties, unions, super PACs, and other social advocacy groups will be well over one million dollars for a single legislative seat in Michigan. With the Democrats clinging to a 56–54 majority, each seat could decide who controls the House of Representatives for Gretchen Whitmer’s final two years in office. Each candidate brings their own set of strengths and weaknesses. Votes in the district are aware of the views of Ms. Hill and Mr. Bohnak because of the mail, TV, and social media advertising. Here are some data points to watch on election night to determine who will represent the 109th for the next two years.
General Data
2022 Governor Vote
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 55%
Tudor Dixon 43% (R)
2022 State Rep Vote
Jenn Hill (D) 53%
Melody Wagner (R) 47%
2022 Percentage of Vote By County (within 109 District)
Marquette County 74%
All others 26%
Total number of voters in 109 District for presidential elections
2020: 46,706
2016: 40,729
2012: 40,005
2008: 42,072
2004: 41,841
Here is the breakdown by party of key precincts and municipalities, with Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden’s Results in the 2020 presidential race and Jenn Hill’s results in the state rep campaign two years ago.
Alger County
2022 State Rep: Melody Wagner (R) 57% Jenn Hill (D) 43%
2020 President: Donald Trump (R) 59% Joe Biden (D) 40%
Key Municipalities to Watch
Au Train Township: Trump 64%, Hill 33%
Munising City: Trump 53%, Hill 55%
Munising Township: Trump 69%, Hill 34%
Rock River Township: Trump 53%, Hill 47%
Baraga County
2022 State Rep: Meldoy Wagner (R) 63% Jenn Hill (D) 37%
2020 President: Donald Trump (R) 62% Joe Biden (D) 36%
Baraga Townships: 61% Trump, Hill 37%
L’anse Township: Trump 64%, Hill 37%
Spur Township: Biden 52%, Hill 53%
Dickinson County
2022 State Rep: Melody Wagner (R) 68% Jenn Hill (D) 32%
2020 President: Donald Trump (R) 68% Joe Biden (D) 32%
Norway City: Trump 59%, Hill 41%
Norway Township: Trump 67%, Hill 32%
Marquette County
2022 State Rep: Jenn Hill (D) 58% Melody Wagner (R) 42%
2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 55% Donald Trump (R) 44%
Chocolay Township: Biden 53%, Hill 62%
Ely Township: Trump 57%, Hill 46%
Forsyth Township: Trump 56%, Hill 48%
Ishpeming City: Biden 56%, Hill 62%
Ishpeming Township: Trump 50%, Hill 51%
Marquette City: Biden 68%, Hill 70%
Marquette Township: Biden 58%, Hill 59%
Negaunee City: Biden 59%, Hill 63%
Negaunee Township: Biden 51%, Hill 52%
Republic Township: Trump 55%, Hill 48%
Sands Township: Trump 54%, Hill 48%
Tilden Township: Trump 53%, Hill 47%
West Branch Township: Trump 54%, Hill 50%
Election Themes
- A significant item to watch will be whether Karl Bohnak matches Donald Trump’s numbers from 2020 (and 2024) or whether Jenn Hill improves her standing from her first election.
- Watch the votes from the cities within Marquette County or, as I refer to them, the “Big 3”: Ishpeming, Marquette, and Negaunee, which accounted for 32% of the total vote in 2022
- The next largest chunk of the vote will come from the townships of the “Big 3” Chocolay, Ishpeming, Marquette, and Negaunee, which accounted for 21% of the total vote in 2022
- The greater Marquette area, which includes the Big 3 and their townships, accounted for 43% of the total number of votes.
Conclusion
This election has been one for the ages. Jenn Hill has been the most prolific fundraiser of any U.P. representative this century, which has allowed her to get her message out. Karl Bohnak has been the best candidate the Republicans have ever put up for the seat, and they are confident he is the one to finally win the seat the GOP has tried to flip since the Eisenhower Administration. This one is going to be very close throughout the night, and it will be an epic way to end an epic campaign.
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