Battleground 109: Bohnak’s Breakthrough and the Republican Renaissance
In the week since Karl Bohnak’s historic victory, many questions have arisen about his victory to become the first Republican to represent Marquette County in the state house since Dwight Eisenhower was president. Did he run an organization that created a coalition of Republicans, Independents, and even some Democrats? Was his aggressive door-to-door campaigning around the city of Marquette able to cut into Jenn Hill’s vote enough to propel him to victory? Was Jenn Hill a uniquely weak incumbent who let herself get defined as someone who only took orders from her party leadership? Did Donald Trump rally rural voters in the Upper Peninsula as he had done in his past two campaigns? The answer to those questions and many more is yes.
Breaking the Blue Wall of the Big Three
But in a deeper dive into the numbers, Bohnak ran a perfect campaign where he over-performed in Dem Areas from 2022. This didn’t allow Hill to build a vote advantage. She needed to withstand the red wave in the other counties.
City of Ishpeming Hill 55% (Down from 62%)
City of Negaunee Hill 55% (Down from 63%)
Marquette Township Hill 54% (Down from 59%)
Chocolay Township Hill 51% (Down from 62%)
City of Marquette Hill 67% (Down from 72%)
Flipping Swing Areas
Ishpeming Township 54% (Was Hill 51%)
Negaunee Township 54% (Was Hill 52%)
City of Munising 53% (Was Hill 55%)
Spurr Township (Baraga County) 55% (Was Hill 53%)
Champion Township (Marquette County) 56% (Was Hill 55%)
Powell Township (Marquette County) 51% (Was Hill 53%)
Tilden Township (Marquette County) 59% (Was Hill 51%)
Impressive Marquette County Numbers
Bohnak also won within the jurisdiction of two Marquette County Commission Districts — not just any two districts, but the Chair and Vice-Chair of the county board. These areas were trending Republican at the presidential level, but having them vote down-ticket could give local Republicans enthusiasm to potentially challenge for those seats in the future.
-District 2 Chairman Joe Derocha (Champion, Ely, Humboldt, Ishpeming, Michigamme, Negaunee, Powell, and Republic Townships) Bohnak got 58% of the Vote
-District 5 Vice Chairman Bill Nordeen (Ewing, Forsyth, Richmond, Skandia, Tilden, Turin, Wells, West Branch Townships) Bohnak got 57% of the vote
Riding the Red Wave
Bohnak was able to increase the percentages in the outer counties from 2022. No doubt a lot of these voters were excited to send President Trump back to the White House, but a lot of them also voted straight ticket.
Alger County 60% (up from 57%)
Baraga County 67% (up from 63%)
Dickinson County 69% (up from 67%)
2026
The future of the seat will be interesting to watch. For the first time since the 1950s, an incumbent Republican is sitting in the seat, and Democrats will be playing offense for the first time in many people’s lifetimes. There is no shortage of ambitious Democrats who view now as their time to step up and lead the party. With the Republicans having a 58–52 seat majority, Bohnak might have to take some votes that Democrats will be ready to cast as out of step with the district. No doubt, the 109th District will remain competitive in the near future and now its the GOP’s turn to defend it.
Thank you for following this journey of the wild year of 2024. Here are the other Articles from Battleground 109 Series
